I just got off the phone with former Daily News columnist Bob Kappstatter (Boy, do we miss Kappy’s weekly column or what?) and he pointed me to this entry on his Facebook page and authorized me to post it here. Thanks, Bob! And, stay tuned for more about this critical issue on Bronx Matters.
Okay, fast look at the Bronx winners and losers in the new congressional proposed by Magistrate Roanne Mann. I could be wrong, but:
1. Jose Serrano expands west into Soundview and gives up a small slice along the northwestern edge to go to that new Latino district that takes in Harlem and upper Manhattan.
2. Joe Crowley gives up Soundview, but keeps the white northeast Bronx and his Queens home base.
3. Charlie Rangel totally screwed out of the Bronx. Victory for Dem County Leader Carl Heastie.
4. Eliot Engel just about totally screwed since only Riverdale stays in a district that’s totally southern Westchester. He either beats a Westchester contender, or faces off against a challenger in a new district that’s totally in Rockland, without his Riverdale political support.
The link for the maps the magistrate proposes is right here: http://www.docstoc.com/docs/115548887/Regional-Layouts
Bronx Matters 
For a more detailed look at the proposed new lines, and some racial breakdowns, here’s the official court website:
https://ecf.nyed.uscourts.gov/dropbox/court/
Not sure what Mr. Kappstatter means by “Charlie Rangel totally screwed out of the Bronx.” The maps I’ve seen aren’t too precise, but from what I can see Rangel’s district (the 13th under Mann’s numbering) does move up the far west of the Bronx starting along the Harlem River around Highbridge. It starts jutting further east around University Heights, covering all of Kingsbridge, Bedford Park, and Norwood. A lot of us Bronxites in the Northwest move from Engel to Rangel.
Kappstatter is also wrong about “only Riverdale” staying in Engel’s district. The maps show Woodlawn and a significant portion of Wakefield and other east Bronx neighborhoods (can’t tell if it stretches as far as Co-op City — don’t think so. That would be interesting though, since Co-op City is Engel’s original base. He first won a seat in Congress as a Co-Op City guy.)
I imagine Engel isn’t happy with all the money he spent on lobbyists (including the convicted tax evader Nick Spano!) Frankly though — his district was absurdly drawn to maximize his Jewish vote. I don’t see Engel running in Rockland — he was only up that far to capture the Jewish vote. The question is — is his Riverdale base strong enough to carry him in parts of Westchester where people will have never even heard of him. (Except that he camps out for the State of the Union) My question — who would run against him? Stewart-Cousins would seem to have a good base for this district. Who are some of the ambitious pols in lower-Westchester who may be tempted?
Nita Lowey vs. Engel?
And Jack is right, Engel’s new district would swing across the top of the Bronx over to Co-op City (Darn those small maps!), but it’s questionable whether he could still pull votes from there after Joe Crowley (who would lose it in his new district) has had it for a number of years.
Professional political numbersmeister Jerry Skurnik pointed out to me that “Engel’s present district is only 40% Bronx and he hasn’t faced a serious Westchester or Rockland opponent since 2002.”
As for Charley Rangel, although the new district DOES cut into a piece of the northwest Bronx, Charlie (who’s father was Puerto Rican) would being running in an overwhelming Latino district (55.1% Hispanic, 35.% black), with a large number of Hispanic electeds already chomping at the bit to run there.
“Carlito” might/maybe squeeze through in a primary if they all pile in and dilute the vote.
Right now, this is all so much political bloviating. We shall see, and let the games begin!